The Immigration (H1-B) Crisis Paradox
- Cathy Campo
- Nov 23, 2025
- 4 min read
By: Parth Handa, Staff Writer
Walk into the Global Hub on any given Tuesday, and you can practically smell the anxiety. It’s a mix of burnt coffee, dry-cleaned suits, and the sheer terror of Investment Banking hopefuls realizing they might actually have to work 100-hour weeks.
Between the never-ending "coffee chats" (that are definitely interviews) and the consulting firms playing hard-to-get, the vibe for international students has been, to put it mildly, apocalyptic.
If you open LinkedIn or your class WhatsApp group, the narrative is pretty clear: The H-1B system is broken, the lottery is a casino, and we are all doomed.
But here’s the thing and I need you to put down your Sweetgreen and listen that the narrative is not 100% accurate.
While we’ve been busy doom-scrolling, the data has quietly shifted in favor of already enrolled MBA students. If you look past the headlines and actually crunch the numbers, the Class of 2026/2027 is staring down at the best H-1B odds in a decade.
Here is the "signal in the noise" that no one is talking about.
1. The "Body Shops" Just Got Wrecked (And That’s Great for You)
For the last few years, the H-1B lottery was rigged. Not by the government, but by "body shops," shady outsourcing consultancies that would submit 10, 15, or 20 registrations for the same person to flood the lottery system.
In 2024, it was a mess. There were 780,000 registrations for only 85,000 spots. It was basically impossible.
But the rules just changed. USCIS (U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services) switched to a "beneficiary-centric" model. In plain English: One person = One ticket. It doesn’t matter if a candidate has 50 job offers from 50 shell companies; they only get entered into the lottery once.
The impact was instant.
FY 2024 (Peak): 408,000 "multiple" registrations
FY 2026 (New Rules): That number dropped to 7,828.
The scammers have been deleted from the denominator. The "noise" is gone. Your odds of selection in the Master's Cap have likely jumped from a depressing ~20% to a very real 45-50%.
2. The "MBA Multiplier": Why Your Salary Now Buys You Extra Lottery Tickets
This is the big one. The game-changer that very few are discussing.
The USCIS has proposed a massive shift for the March 2026 lottery (FY 2027). They are moving from a "random selection" to a "weighted selection" based on salary tiers.
Under the old system, a $60,000 entry-level IT tester had the exact same statistical chance of winning a visa as a Kellogg grad with a $190,000 consulting offer.
The new system fixes this by assigning lottery entries based on Department of Labor (DOL) wage levels:
Level 1 (Entry Level): 1 lottery ticket
Level 2 (Qualified): 2 lottery tickets
Level 3 (Experienced): 3 lottery tickets
Level 4 (Fully Competent): 4 lottery tickets
Here is why this wins for Kellogg: Most IT Service roles are priced at Level 1 to keep costs low. Under this new system, their odds of selection are projected to drop by nearly 50%.
Meanwhile, standard post-MBA roles, Product Manager at Amazon, Associate at MBB or Banker at Goldman, command salaries that typically hit Level 3 or 4 for their state (you can check your wage level here).
By simply landing a market-rate MBA job, you are mathematically stacking the deck. You aren't just getting paid more; you are getting 3x or 4x the lottery tickets of the average applicant. The system is finally working in your favor.
3. The "Enrollment Cliff" is Your Friend
Take a look at the charts on international enrollment (specifically that 12% drop in graduate enrollment shown in the Fall 2025 snapshot):
While it’s sad for university CFOs, it’s fantastic for you. The H-1B lottery is a supply and demand game with a fixed supply (85,000 visas). The "demand" side—the number of international grad students entering the pipeline—is shrinking.
Fewer students starting Master's programs in 2024/2025 means fewer competitors in the lottery in 2026 and 2027. We are moving past "peak competition." The massive wave of post-COVID enrollments is graduating and exiting the system, leaving a smaller, less crowded pool for you to swim in.
4. Ignore the "$100k Fee" Panic
You’ve probably seen the headlines: "Trump Admin proposes $100k fee for H-1B visas!"
That fee is designed to stop companies from importing new cheap labor from overseas. It almost certainly won't apply to Change of Status petitions for students already here on F-1 visas. The government (at least for now) wants to stop outsourcing—not kick out the students it just educated. If anything, a high barrier to entry for offshore applicants just leaves more visa spots for onshore candidates (that's you).
The Bottom Line
The "doom and gloom" era was real, but it’s over. The structural breaks in the system that made it a nightmare in 2023 and 2024 have been patched.
The fraud is gone.
The competition is shrinking.
The selection system is tilting toward high-earners.
So, go to that coffee chat. Put on the suit. Focus on getting the offer. If you land the job, the math says the visa will likely take care of itself.
Disclaimer: The views written here are personal. I’m an MBA student, not an immigration lawyer. If you have specific legal questions, go hire a pro.
Read More By Parth Handa: The Boardroom Beyond the Classroom
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