Kulture Korner: Oscars Wins & Snubs
- Cathy Campo
- Feb 22
- 7 min read
By: Mikey Griglak The 98th Academy Awards are coming up on Sunday, March 15th, and the race for best picture is heating up. All ten nominees represent some of the best elements of filmmaking, from the craft and adrenaline pumping soundscape design of F1 to the quiet beauty of the more subdued Train Dreams. A few films have emerged as frontrunners: Sinners leads the pack with a record setting 16 Oscar nominations, One Battle After Another follows close behind with 13 nominations, Hamnet from previous Best Picture winner Chloé Zhao, and Sentimental Value which has been in Best Picture contention since last spring as a Grand Prix winner coming out of Cannes.
As a film about music, Sinners is likely to perform well where it's strongest, winning key awards in the Soundtrack and Original Song categories. Although the actors overperformed with some surprising nominations, Michael B. Jordan, Delroy Lindo, and Wunmi Mosaku all seem unlikely to take home statues. If Sinners goes into the end of the night with above the line wins in Acting or Directing, it may have a strong enough showing to go all the way. But that is a big ‘if’ given the strength of other top films this year.
Chloé Zhao’s has taken home the top prize before (Nomadland, 2020) , so her slow-paced, ethereal filmmaking clearly has an audience among the Academy judges. Further, Hamnet’s lead, Jesse Buckley, is seen as among the strongest of this year’s acting nominees, and the film won Best Drama Picture at the Golden Globes. Despite this, the film failed to secure a nomination for supporting actor and Academy darling Paul Mescal, which suggests less strength than might be needed to go all the way. If Zhao can pull off upsets in Production Design, Screenplay, or Directing, there may be a path for Hamnet to take Best Picture as well.
Sentimental Value is also poised for a strong night, with recognition likely for Acting for Stellan Skarsgård and a likely win for Norway with Best International Feature Film. We have also seen a rising international voting bloc within the Academy in recent years, and Sentimental Value would fit well into the voting trends of the so-called ‘New Academy.’ Notably, the film secured a Best Editing nomination—the last three Best Picture winners also won Editing, and only nine films have ever won Best Picture without at least a nomination from the Editing category. If Sentimental Value takes the Editing award win, I will look for it to appear on stage as the big winner at the end of the night.
With a strong 13 nominations, One Battle After Another is also clearly well-liked by the Academy. However, the biggest names involved, director Paul Thomas Anderson and lead Leonardo DiCaprio, famously forego much of the award season campaigning. It is notable that PTA is the only director to win top directing awards at all three major competitive film festivals, Cannes, Berlin, and Venice, and yet he has never been recognized with an Academy Award in any category. It seems that a win is long overdue, and that is likely to come early in the night, potentially in either the Writing or Directing categories. If OBAA can also lock the Editing award, it would make it a clear frontrunner by the end of the night. The film is also likely to receive some love from the Acting branch where it has three nominations. Teyana Taylor is widely seen as the frontrunner for supporting actress and any one of Leonardo DiCaprio, Benicio del Toro, and Sean Penn could pull off upset Acting wins. Given the overall strength of the package, One Battle After Another is my pick for most likely Best Picture winner.
Despite OBAA’s recognition across categories, my personal favorite film of the year is Sentimental Value. Coming off an impressive showing with several nominations for Worst Person in the World, Joachim Trier’s new project had high expectations, which were certainly met if not exceeded. Sentimental Value tells a tough story of a strained father-daughter relationship while also being a love letter to filmmaking itself and to the director’s hometown of Oslo. Particularly, the film’s ability to exemplify the process of movie making through the narrative of familial relations is a testament to Trier’s power behind the camera. As a moving story about family and the process of making art, my personal vote for Best Picture goes to Sentimental Value.
Here are more of my thoughts on this year’s likely winners, most deserving nominees, and a few snubs the Ac
ademy overlooked on nomination day.
Best Screenplay Awards
With a record setting 16 nominations for Ryan Coogler’s Sinners, many are expecting a big night for the film and its many nominees. One category where it seems most poised to take home a trophy is for Screenplay. Ryan Coogler’s script has been nominated at key precursors, including the Writers Guild Awards and the BAFTAs. Although Coogler will certainly be deserving of recognition for his achievement, Jafar Panahi’s It Was Just an Accident would be a very inspired winner for the category. Panahi has been living in exile from the Iranian regime since writing and directing this work, and his co-writers are currently imprisoned. A telling rebuke of the political conditions in Iran, It Was Just an Accident is a moving film grounded primarily by the power of its script. Panahi was already recognized with the Palme d’Or at Cannes for his movie, and it would be a shame for him to walk away from the Oscars without a trophy, and Screenplay seems like the most apt category to award this powerful example of the truth telling ability of cinema. Although Sinners is the likely winner, I will be rooting for It Was Just an Accident.
On the adapted side of the screenplay categories, there is a similarly clear frontrunner in Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another. Having already bested the category at the Golden Globes (also beating Coogler’s Sinners, as the Globes give one, combined screenplay award), PTA is a heavy favorite heading into the night. I, personally, will be rooting for Chloé Zhao’s Hamnet. I think Zhao had a much harder task given the source material’s basis in one of the most retold works of Shakespeare (Hamlet). As a work of adaptation, I think Zhao did an excellent job and should be recognized as such.
Across Adapted and Original, there were many pieces of writing this year that went unrecognized by the Academy. Splitsville is a laugh-out-loud funny comedy written, starring, and directed by creative duo Michael Angelo Covino and Kyle Marvin. In general, the Academy has not always given comedies their well-deserved flowers, and Spitsville would have been an excellent opportunity right that wrong given the strength of its writing, humor, and originality. A similar multi-hyphenate, Eva Victor wrote, directed, and starred in their debut feature Sorry, Baby. Sorry, Baby threads a difficult line of dealing with dark and personal subject matter (sexual assault) while also managing to be quite funny in a way that is shockingly adept for a first-time filmmaker. Although all aspects of Victor’s craft would be more than deserving of recognition from the Academy, the film’s greatest strength is its original screenplay. For anyone who has not yet seen it and needs another reason, I’ll also note, Eva Victor is a Northwestern alum!
Lastly, Ben Shattuck adapted the screenplay for The History of Sound, a deeply moving and tragic story of gay lovers in the early 20th century. The film’s lead actors Paul Mescal and Josh O’Connor give heart-wrenching performances, but the real tearjerker moments of the film are grounded in the script. Unfortunately, Splitsville, Sorry, Baby, nor The History of Sound will be recognized by the Academy Awards this year, but I highly recommend a watch for all our readers, especially those interested in great writing.
Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson is the widely recognized frontrunner for Best Director at this year’s Oscars ceremony and was already recognized by his peers as this year’s top director at the Directors Guild Awards. Despite 14 career nominations, PTA has never won an Oscar, and that is sure to change come March 15th. Although PTA is more than deserving if only for his illustrious career, Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value represents the greatest in directing achievement this year. By pulling back the curtain and showing the audience the process of filmmaking while still telling a narrative story, Trier shows off his chops in a way that stands out among his contemporaries.
Although Bugonia perhaps overperformed many expectations with four nominations this year, one notable exception was for the director, Yorgos Lanthimos. Lanthimos has been making jarring, thought provoking, and wryly funny films that have caught the Academy’s attention across categories for years. Although this is not the year for it, I look forward to Lanthimos’s recognition by the Academy as a Best Director in the hopefully near future, and I would have loved to see him nominated for his work this year.
Best Acting Awards
Perhaps no one enters Oscar’s night with a stronger position than Hamnet’s lead actress, Jesse Buckley. You would be hard pressed to find anyone who watched her exemplify a mother’s grief with a dry eye, and for the strength of her performance, she is widely expected to win Best Actress, deservedly so.
Perhaps surprisingly, Timothee Chalamet also enters Oscar’s night with a strong position for his performance as a fast-talking ping-pong player in Marty Supreme. Chalamet is 30-years-old, which would make him among the youngest ever winners if he takes home the statue for Best Actor. He has done well all awards season long, and it made even more impactful by his greatest competition being his long-time role model, Leonardo DiCaprio. Chalamet has been somewhat derided for his non-traditional style of awards season campaigning, for example his boisterous speech at last year’s Screen Actors Guild Awards. But non-traditional may be enough, particularly when his greatest competition this season is known for eschewing awards season events and pressors altogether.
The Supporting category races are somewhat less firm going into the awards. My current picks as likely winners are Stellan Skarsgård in Sentimental Value and Teyana Taylor in One Battle After Another. Both give captivating performances, though in oppositional ways. As an estranged father, Skarsgård plays a mostly unlikeable man, but as a leading filmmaker, his character most also have an undeniable charisma. Skarsgård tows the line effortlessly in the film. Teyana Taylor has no such subtly in her role as the firebrand revolutionary albeit absentee mother in OBAA. Every second she appears in the film, though sparing, my eyes were glued to the screen. Taylor brings an unmatched bravado to the role as well as an unexpected physicality. Although I think Sentimental Value and One Battle are deserving Supporting Actor winners, my personal picks would be flipped. Benicio Del Toro gives arguably the best comedic performance of the year in OBAA, and Elle Fanning hands similar if not greater emotional complexity than Skarsgård in a much more deliberate role. Read More About Hollywood: Is Hollywood F*cked? Thunderbolts* Review "The Materialists" Review "Mission Impossible" Review Piece by Piece" Review"
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